‘Sneakflation’: How American Consumers face gradual rise in costs due to Trump tariffs

Last Modified : September 2, 2025

Published Date: September 2, 2025

Written by: Archana N

Senior Writer & Content Strategist

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Edited by: GlimMarket Editorial

Editors, Writers & Reviewers

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Reviewd by: Dileep K Nair

Senior Editor & Expert Reviewer

“Sneakflation” refers to the invisible rising cost many Americans now face: subtle, incremental price increases that creep into household budgets before they truly register. It is not headline grabbing price hikes, but rather the drift upward that catches shoppers by surprise.

Key Takeaways

Tariffs are beginning to surface in U.S. consumer prices after months of staying hidden in supply chains.
Retailers and trade groups warn that higher costs are unavoidable, with households likely to bear much of the burden.
Past tariff cycles show that even small increases accumulate, eventually reshaping consumer spending habits.
The outlook suggests holiday shoppers and import heavy sectors may feel the sharpest effects in the months ahead.

At the heart of this shift is President Trump’s latest round of tariffs, which began rolling out in early August 2025. The new duties span a broad range of imports, from consumer electronics to clothing, household items and even coffee and toys imposed at levels ranging from 15% to as high as 50% in some categories The Washington Post.

These tariffs don’t all show up on tags right away. Initially absorbed by wholesalers or retailers, the added costs trickle down in ways customers may not immediately see perhaps in smaller package sizes, marginal price bumps or brands tacking on surcharges that go unnoticed until the receipt arrives.

“Retailers have been able to hold the line on pricing so far, but the new increased tariffs will significantly raise costs for U.S. retailers, manufacturers and consumers,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, in a message shared with The Associated Press AP News.

The Tariff Moves and Their Scope

The scope of the new tariffs is striking. Automobiles imported from key markets face duties of up to 12 percent, raising prices on models that dominate the mid-range car market. Footwear and leather goods, staples for back to school and holiday shopping, have surged by nearly 39 percent. Clothing imports, from winter coats to basic T-shirts, are up by more than a third. Even fresh produce, usually less affected by tariff rounds, has edged higher with an average increase of about 7 percent, according to the Washington Post.

The Trump administration has defended these measures as part of a broader strategy to restore leverage in global trade talks and to encourage domestic production. “For too long, other nations have undercut American workers with unfair practices,” White House officials said in prepared remarks, arguing that tariffs create incentives for U.S. manufacturers to rebuild capacity and protect jobs at home. The administration has signaled that the duties also serve as bargaining tools in negotiations with trade partners including the European Union, Japan, Brazil and India, per Business Insider.

But for businesses that depend on global supply chains, the new costs are harder to absorb. Retailers and wholesalers say they are already under pressure from elevated transportation expenses and higher labor costs. A survey released this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that three quarters of firms are now passing tariff related price increases directly on to consumers, according to WRAL. That reality means the burden of tariffs, however indirect, is steadily migrating from importers and retailers to the wallets of ordinary Americans.

The Data Behind “Sneakflation”

Recent empirical work reveals that what feels invisible is now measurable. As reported by WRAL, economists estimate that through June, only 22 percent of Trump’s tariff costs had been borne by consumers yet by October, that share is expected to climb to 67 percent, suggesting a rising cost burden making its way slowly but steadily onto household receipts, as per WRAL.com.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs estimate that roughly 70% of direct tariff costs will ultimately fall to consumers. If domestic producers begin to raise prices in response, that figure could approach 100% over time, per Goldman Sachs analysis.

Economists track how tariffs enter price data by comparing import price indices with pre-tariff trends. As Pantheon Macroeconomics noted, import prices have held steady, up about 0.5 percent since the late 2024 election and rising a further 0.2 percent since March, when the bulk of new tariffs took hold. That increase implies that foreign exporters are passing on costs, meaning the added cost rests with importers and, eventually, shoppers.

Harvard Business School economist Alberto Cavallo, speaking with CNN, pointed to those lags in the system. “It could take over a year for us to see some of the effects of these tariffs,” he said. “But a year from now, maybe two years from now, we’ll notice that consumers ended up paying a significant amount of the tariffs even if they didn’t notice the increases right away.” His words underscore that what price data show now is merely the early stage of a gradual pass through.

Voices From the Ground: Businesses and Households

Behind the charts and percentages lie real stories of cost pressure spreading across the country.

Retailers and small business owners, especially those with tight margins, are already grappling with higher supplier prices. Web reports echo remarks from business association spokespeople noting that costs on goods like electronics and furniture have inched upward without much fanfare, but enough to pinch receipts and profit lines alike.

Meanwhile, families describe a persistent sense that “everything feels pricier,” even if there isn’t a glaring headline claiming runaway inflation. One shopper told WRAL that her usual grocery bill has crept upward, though the items like a dish soap, peanut butter, coffee, remain the same. “It wasn’t until I looked back at last month’s totals that I realized something is really different,” she said. Such anecdotes match findings from consumer sentiment surveys, where respondents report rising living costs across categories that aren’t always reflected in the official Consumer Price Index.

In combination, both data and personal experience converge on a single point: what we see or barely see in prices today is only part of the story. As businesses cautiously absorb costs, consumers feel the squeeze only slowly, but the imprint is unmistakable.

>> Also Read: Historic US–EU Trade Deal Slaps 15% Tariff on EU Imports: Who Wins and Who Loses?

Political Stakes and Policy Divide

For the Trump administration, tariffs are being framed as a patriotic tool, an economic shield meant to protect American jobs and manufacturing. Officials have repeated the argument that making imported goods more expensive encourages companies to shift production back home, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. “We are bringing industry and strength back to America,” Trump said at a recent rally, reinforcing the message that tariffs are a price worth paying in the short term for long term independence.

Yet the costs are becoming harder to ignore. Economists and business groups have increasingly labeled tariffs as a “hidden tax” on households. While not showing up as a line item on a receipt, the extra charges filter down into everything from electronics to groceries. According to reporting by Reuters , several trade associations have urged the administration to reconsider the breadth of the latest tariff rounds, warning that household budgets are already being stretched thin by higher mortgage rates and rising energy bills.

On Capitol Hill, the debate has sharpened. Republican allies continue to support Trump’s use of tariffs as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. But some lawmakers, particularly moderates from consumer heavy districts, have begun to press for targeted relief or exemptions. Meanwhile, Democrats have seized on the issue to portray the tariffs as undermining middle class purchasing power. As one Democratic senator told The New York Times , “You cannot claim to lower costs for families while quietly raising them at the checkout line.”

The policy divide underscores the political gamble. Tariffs remain popular with portions of the electorate who see them as tough on China measures. But as more Americans notice the creeping rise in everyday costs, the question is whether support holds or begins to erode.

Historical Parallels and Lessons

Economists often remind that tariffs rarely stay hidden for long. History provides more than a few examples. The trade conflict of 2018–2019, when the Trump administration first imposed sweeping duties on Chinese goods, initially seemed abstract to many households. But within a year, consumer electronics, washing machines and household appliances saw sharp price increases, a pattern documented by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Earlier cases show a similar trajectory. Steel tariffs imposed under President George W. Bush in 2002 were designed to protect domestic mills, yet by 2003, U.S. automakers and appliance manufacturers reported higher costs, which eventually trickled into vehicle prices. The consumer pushback and pressure from industry led the administration to roll back the measures earlier than planned.

Trade historians point further back, noting how tariff heavy periods in U.S. history often carried unintended consequences. The Smoot Hawley Tariff of 1930, though aimed at shielding domestic farmers and manufacturers, is widely cited as having worsened the Great Depression by raising prices and dampening global trade.

The pattern is consistent: tariffs introduced as strategic tools almost always find their way into consumer prices. While policymakers may hope the effects stay muted, retail shelves and grocery bills eventually tell a different story. The lesson, as economists stress, is that tariffs do not disappear quietly- they resurface, sometimes months later, in the most ordinary corners of household spending.

5. The Road Ahead: What to Expect

Most economists anticipate that the effects of this tariff round will ripple through the economy across the coming months and into next year, not all at once but gradually, in phases. Analysts at Moody’s projected that by mid 2026, roughly 80 percent of the tariff incidence will be reflected in retail prices, particularly if energy costs and labor rates remain elevated. If importers continue to retain a degree of margin buffer, the full pass through may take nine to twelve months, according to projections from Capital Economics.

The pain is unlikely to be evenly spread. Early indicators show that electronics like smartphones, laptops, and household devices could bear much of the burden next, with margins already tight. Imported raw materials and intermediate goods, particularly those used in construction and manufacturing, are likewise expected to pass higher costs onto end products. Auto parts have appeared on the radar too; with vehicles already facing tariff pressure, repair costs could edge up as replacement components become more expensive.

Consumers are heading into a sensitive period with the holiday shopping season looming. Economists warn that “sneakflation” may dampen discretionary spending even before the weekend deals arrive. Households might defer purchases of big ticket items or shift toward lower cost alternatives as price hikes, though subtle, pile up. With inflation easing in headline rates, the hidden cost increases represent a stealth challenge one that could subtract from retail sales momentum and reshape year end consumer sentiment.

GlimMarket Perspective

At GlimMarket, our reporting has consistently shown that tariffs rarely remain abstract policy tools for long. They begin as line items in trade negotiations but eventually surface in household budgets, where families notice smaller baskets for the same spending. While today’s discussion focuses on tariffs as leverage for jobs and industry, our experience following past trade disputes suggests that the consumer always becomes part of the equation. Maintaining balance between economic strategy and household resilience will likely define how this chapter in U.S. trade policy is remembered.

ALSO READ

>> India, UK Sign Landmark Free Trade Agreement: 99% Tariff Free Access, Visa Boost, $34 Billion Trade Surge Expected

>> US–EU Trade Deal Brings 15% Tariff on Imports: What It Means for Businesses, Consumers, and Investors

>> June Inflation Rises to 2.7% as Tariffs Push Up Prices and Delay Fed Moves

Author Insight

Archana N,

Senior Author and Content Strategist

Looking back at earlier tariff cycles, one theme stands out: consumers rarely feel the full hit at once. The added costs arrive in increments a few cents on groceries, a couple of dollars on household items, higher bills at the service counter. At first, the changes blend into routine inflation. Only after months of compounding do families realize their disposable income has eroded. This gradual pressure, often described as “hidden taxation,” is why tariff debates extend far beyond politics. They shape how everyday Americans perceive financial stability.

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This article draws on verified reporting from reputable news outlets, trade data and expert commentary. GlimMarket maintains strict editorial independence and does not accept influence from advertisers or political groups in shaping coverage. We have already provided necessary attributions within the article itself, The analysis provided reflects reporting and expert opinions at the time of publication. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.